Sustained overtime during the launch push leads to burnout and attrition

Risk statement. The team has logged above-baseline hours for six consecutive weeks. Two people have flagged workload in their last one-to-ones. The pattern typically precedes resignations by one to two quarters.

Trigger / early warning. A fourth consecutive week above baseline hours, or a second person raising workload unprompted.

Consequence if realised. Quality drops before anyone leaves. If someone does leave mid-project, replacement plus ramp-up costs roughly a quarter of delivery capacity.

Current response. Mitigate. Cap sustained overtime, enforce recovery time after each release, and hold the scope line.